GCC economic research service from Khalij Economics & GlobalSource Partners

Khalij Economics is a consultancy dedicated to understanding the GCC and its role in the world. It was founded in 2017 by Justin Alexander, who has been covering the region for over two decades, including 7 years in Qatar with the Ministry of Finance and QNB. He has also worked for The Economist Group, the UN in Iraq and Schroders. He regularly writes for and speaks at think tanks, such as AGSIW, IISS, the Gulf Research Center and Konrad Adenauer Stiftung.

GlobalSource Partners is a leading US-based provider of independent emerging market research with a network of analysts that includes former central bank governors, finance and economy ministers and senior advisers.

GlobalSource’s GCC service was launched in 2019 in response to demand from global asset managers, as the region’s securities became increasingly important in major debt and equity indices, but they faced an information gap due to difficulties locating and assessing data and a lack of independent analysis. Many of our more recent clients are local asset managers, companies and government bodies within the GCC (e.g. central banks, ministries, sovereign wealth funds) who also value independent insights, reliable and well-organized data, and consistent surveillance of relevant developments across the region. The service includes:

• The flagship Gulf Weekly curates, summarizes, and analyzes relevant developments in each of the six Gulf states. It is designed to be quick to skim while also providing detailed insights into significant data and developments. It also covers the oil market and cross-cutting themes (e.g. the impact of regional conflicts or policy changes in key partners such as the US), as well as selected developments in regional states with close ties to the Gulf. It includes links to raw data, reports and local and international media coverage, so that clients can dig deeper into topics of interest. It also highlights significant data or events expected in the week ahead.

• Detailed reports expand on major economic data releases or thematic issues, while “In Brief” notes provide immediate analysis of potentially market-moving events or data.

• The GCC Databank is the most extensive and well-organized Excel workbook of data and forecasts, updated weekly. It draws on sources not used by major data providers (such as Haver and Bloomberg), including bond prospectuses, budget laws, IMF Article IV reports and rating agencies. It includes sheets that provide detailed and standardized cross-country comparisons, including emirate-level data for the UAE. Full details, including screenshots, are in this Databank slide deck.

• Webinars on the regional outlook or at key moments of flux.

• Analyst access through regular calls and detailed and rapid written responses to questions.

• Other countries: A GCC subscription includes complimentary access to a few GlobalSource reports from other country services (Turkey, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, India, China etc.) and to webinars by those analysts.

Testimonials

• “Your analysis is first-rate, with unique insights into public finances” (fixed income portfolio manager).

• “The depth and quality of your coverage is without comparison” (fixed income analyst).

• “Over a third of the coverage in your weeklies are things I see nowhere else” (rating agency analyst).

• “Your databank is a phenomenal resource, and I can see how much work goes into it” (sell-side economist).

• “I can benchmark against peers, and I also learn new things about my country” (government economist).

• “Your responses to my questions are always quick and interesting” (equity portfolio manager).

Some out-of-consensus forecasts include:

• We anticipated Dubai’s partial repayment of loans in 2023 when most expected a full rollover.

• When UAE-Saudi disagreements threatened OPEC+ cooperation in July 2021, a dispute we had anticipated in advance, we correctly predicted the terms of the compromise agreement.

• In March 2021, we wrote a detailed report arguing that de-escalatory trends in the region and shared economic interests would lead to a revival in GCC-Turkey relations, as indeed happened.

• Following Sultan Haitham’s ascension in Oman in January 2020, we correctly predicted a major move to fiscal consolidation, well ahead of the bond rally, having previously been negative on reform prospects.

• While the service does include some forecasts and opinions, the primary purpose is to provide objective data and information to help clients in their own assessments. We do not make investment recommendations.

More information:

For content questions: Justin Alexander at justin@khalijeconomics.com 

For subscription details or to request a trial, contact the GlobalSource sales team:

• Sean Klinkowize, klinkowize@globalsourcepartners.com

• Robert Berges, rberges@globalsourcepartners.com